This is going to be a special BLAST Fall Groups – and maybe the last one?

Though normally these Groups events are not known for their ultra-high stakes, this edition of BLAST’s season-starting affair will serve a special purpose for CS esports fans as it serves as the first opportunity to see the myriad new rosters and the many gambles made heading into the CS2 era – and this makes it an exciting must-watch affair by default. Which teams will hit the ground running, who will stumble, and whose excuses are valid at this early juncture? Let’s discuss and dissect what awaits us and the new-look teams looking to get a head start on the competition.

FaZe, G2 and Heroic: the illusion of stability

Ten out of the twelve teams in the field have made some sort of a roster change heading into the new season, and it’s somewhat odd to see the two exceptions to this as neither have been racking up the trophies recently. FaZe at least have a recently overstuffed trophy cabinet to point to – Major wins, a barely clinched Intel Grand Slam, you know the drill – even if they have not often been title contenders in the previous season.

Father Time is eyeing up karrigan and rain, but the rest of the core is very young, and the veterans definitely have the pedigree to keep on keeping on for a while – and perhaps, if you squint hard enough, you could make a similar argument for G2. NiKo is untouchable, therefore so is huNter-, who is posting the same recent 1.07 HLTV ranking average as jks, albeit much more consistently. The Australian can certainly blow hot and cold, but the real question is the walking 4v5 that is HooXi.

Looking at the stats, it is quite clear that he has stabilized at a 0.80 rating and will likely not improve unless CS2 brings some sort of significant systemic change that benefits his playstyle. With his demeanor in Dallas, it seemed like the writing was on the wall, but no changes were made. Then again, what IGL are you looking to pick up for this squad? Certainly not Aleksib again, and siuhy offers the same profile as their current leader. Nevertheless, their decision to stick rather than twist certainly stands out as one of the oddest ones in this offseason, and it will be interesting to see whether it’s a long-term decision or just a temporary acquiescence to the state of the player market.

Heroic are the only team with good reasons to hold onto their strong core without a change heading into the CS2 era, and it’s clear that their elder statesman, cadiaN, still has a lot left in the tank. While the industry politics with Astralis continue unabated, they are clearly the superior Danes in the server, and while they have definitely shed the “onliner” moniker, their playoff performances still leave a lot to be desired. This won’t be the tournament that tells us whether they can improve on this matter or not.

Astralis, Liquid, NAVI and Vitality: the WTF moves

Before you get mad at me, the acronym doesn’t necessarily refer to the quality of the changes made but more to their unexpected nature. Then again, it’s tough to see Liquid’s revamp as anything other than a significant downgrade (alongside a move to a much more challenging region RMR-wise), even with daps’ well-known talent-scouting prowess at play.

Vitality’s decision to move on from dupreeh after securing the fifth Major is either heartless or heartbreaking, depending on how you look at it, but it’s a reasonable decision in terms of long-term planning. If you’re looking to build an era, you need to phase out the old generation before they start dragging your stats down, and if we’re being honest, dupreeh’s renaissance was only into its second event, with a string of poor showings before Rio and Paris.

It took a long while for zonic to set up the foundations of an international squad, so the smart money is on a much faster integration process this time than when Spinx was added to the roster. It should be interesting to see if this shock decision will help avoid the typical Major hangover: it’s clear that no one is safe.

As for NAVI, where does one even start? It became clear rather quickly that electronic’s talents were wasted in the in-game leader role, and new additions were necessary. Going international is a huge decision but also an unavoidable one if the org is looking to field a competitive roster without the inclusion of Russian players.

There are too many moving parts here to make an informed prediction, but it’s never been the AWPers that made Aleksib’s sides what they’ve been, no matter the level, and this is clearly his final opportunity on an elite-level team, so the stars may very well align. Limited as he may be when it comes to calling T-sides, having a key like s1mple will help unlock many gates.

Astralis also showed some ruthlessness by moving on from gla1ve, though the timing feels rather odd after sticking with him for so long when so many juicy options were available on the market. Now, with one of the youngsters already culled and Staehr and b0RUP coming in to make up the numbers, it’s all… just… weird, man. It doesn’t feel like a roster that will last until CS2, let alone for a significant period of time beyond that.

For my money, the best thing to have happened was the twin departures of HUNDEN and Kasper Hvidt: now only casle needs to go (banned from five Majors due to using the coaching bug, lest we forget), and perhaps we could root for them again without the bad taste in the mouth.

The rest of the pack: the potential sidegrades

Not every team went for an earth-shattering set of swaps, but they are all interesting in their own right. Complexity likely won’t gain a massive boost in the rankings by picking up an EliGE long past his prime but keeping the NA flag flying high, and the main hope for the region’s potential bright future at this juncture, is a strong commercial move even if it is just a sidegrade on the server. Very Jason Lake, very smart.

BIG committed to calling in English after the mantuu pickup, focusing on the I rather than the B in their name, with two youngsters joining the fray in the form of prosus and s1n. Realistically, the biggest move for this squad is always going to be the one that doesn’t happen: it’s tabseN sticking around, with ever-growing questions of what might have been. If he’s as strongly intertwined with the org as one is led to believe, he hasn’t done badly for himself out of the loyalty – who would have thought that BIG would become one of the big (haha) partner orgs in both of the major leagues back when they first made a splash at the Kraków Major back in 2017?

NIP’s moves continue to feel haphazard, and the org the victim of circumstances. There’s no stability and no coherence in their roster or in their play, and this consistent inconsistency looks like the DNA they will carry over to CS2. It’s tough to imagine a significant shift in results with hampus coming on board.

OG’s bargain bin strategy in CS allowed them to punch a little above their weight, and they do tend to do quite well in the BLAST events, but losing flameZ and rebuilding the squad with skin shed from BIG and Fnatic doesn’t inspire any confidence.

As for EG, we’re so far past the memes at this point. Of all the ill-fated decisions they’ve made in the past few years, the short-lived refrezh pickup still stands out in terms of inexplicability. What was the point of picking up a Danish journeyman as part of a project supposedly dedicated to rebuilding the North American talent pipeline?

Now’s time for a line change, as if this were a hockey match. It’s great to have junior back AWPing against tier-one opposition. I can’t wait for the interviews.

All in all, a lot to watch out for. Besides, who knows how long this format, flawed as it may be, is about to last? If reports are to be believed, Valve look to clamp down on the semi-exclusive nature of the BLAST and ESL circuits come CS2, so even the mere fact that this event may be one of the last of its kind adds to the intrigue: with just a few top-level CS:GO esports events left, and perhaps the last one EG will be able to qualify for, it’s definitely worth a look – much more so than the previous iterations. If you’re looking to find out more about the schedule and the format, we’ve got you covered: now it’s on the players to deliver some great action in the server.